MWR 4.40% 9.5¢ mgm wireless limited

Expected NPAT for 2019, page-14

  1. 7,244 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 168

    https://www.copyright link/technology/mgm-wirelesss-spacetalk-smartwatches-get-sales-boost-from-nsw-school-mobile-ban-20190109-h19vei

    "In the next six months, he intends to expand the business to Britain and Europe, once again partnering with major electronic retailers and telecommunications providers.

    By next Christmas he believes the company will be generating at least between 10 and 15 times its 2018 sales volumes."
    I assume that is calendar year sales and sounds very promising.
    That is a big show of confidence by Mark. From the recent update, 2018 sales volumes were around 12,000 and that was with only 2 months contribution from JB and Spark and no sales to Europe yet. At 10-15 times 2018 volumes, he is looking for sales of around 120,000 to 180,000 units. The market appears cautious but Mark is expecting to see sales that IMO should drive this share price well into double figures.
    My recent workings were based on conservative sales of around 90,000 units (for 2019/2020  fin year). That gave me a target of $13.

    https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ann-spacetalk-goes-to-the-uk.4607659/page-56?post_id=37175981

    Sales of 120-180,000 units would be so much better for profit and the sp.
    This is a great time to buy if you believe our CEO. Even just half of his upper target gives my 90,000 estimate and that should target $13 on my numbers. That is at least a four bagger from here on a stock that might be considered high risk but is no longer purely speculative as sales and retailer support have been proven and sales growth has been compounding for a full 12 months. They have also built cash back up to $2.5mill very rapidly so cash flow is also looking good since the B&M rollout in November.
    While there is always downside risk to sales numbers, there is also upside risk. The current sp appears to be already factoring in a lot of downside risk so IMO there is now very little sp risk other than from general share market risk.
    $5 may look very cheap in 6-12 months. $3 looks a low risk bargain. I can't see how this is not a screaming buy here.

 
watchlist Created with Sketch. Add MWR (ASX) to my watchlist

Currently unlisted public company.

arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch. arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch.