Sorry to disappoint mate but as I said before I do not short.
However I do know a bit about the industry and you can take or leave pertinent information to the zinc concentrate market if you wish.
Re Nyrstar, other bond holders got shafted last year by Trafigura & Nyrstar agreeing to a working capital facility using their Port Pirie plant as collateral (
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-21/nyrstar-signs-650-million-financing-deal-with-trafigura). Getting the other bond holders to agree to a deal with less assets in the company as security that would kick the can down the road isn’t really in the bondholders best interests. If Nyrstar run into problems again they will do another deal with Trafigura at the expense of the debt holders - why would the debt holders agree to that when there is absolutely no certainty of Port Pirie operating well/getting the principal repaid?
Potential upside
+ NCZ could undertake asset sales to avoid/reduce the size of the CR
+ Significant improvement in recoveries combined with producing within specifications
Potential downside
- Recoveries not increasing enough, producing in specification leading to difficulties in selling the concentrates
- TC for zinc concentrates rising further (lack of smelting capacity)
- Capital raising to continue producing and/or repayment of the working capital facility
- Sales exposure to Nyrstar if bondholders don’t agree to restructure
Lot more risk than reward at these levels IMO.
