CFO 0.00% 1.9¢ cfoam limited

expectations re Q2

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    Looking at page 1 of the March quarterly activities report, management stated they expect some "variability in sales and shipments over the short-term until Phase 1 is operational and sales volumes reach a higher critical mass." On page 3, management also state that they expect "lumpiness in market demand for the current June quarter associated with changes to coal sourcing and the commissioning of the coal pulveriser to ensure that current capacity is optimised for the all-important Phase 1 commissioning in Q3 2018."

    Cfoam have never been particularly clear with their market announcements (I don't think this is intentional, they just lack the skill set in knowing how to communicate clearly and effectively with investors in ASX releases), but my reading of the forward looking statements given in the last quarterly is that we should expect lower sales/cash receipts in the June quarter relative to the March quarter. However, we should also expect significantly higher production, and receipts in Q3 and beyond (once Phase 1 is fully operational). It would not surprise me if this company becomes permanently and materially cashflow positive starting in Q1 next year, if not before.

    In short, while CFO management still have much to learn in how to write an effective ASX release/investor presentation, they (finally) seem to be doing the right things operationally. Given CFO's tiny market cap, and given what appears to be significant demand for Cfoam, if management can get Phase 1 commissioning and Phase 2 planning and financing* right, I think this company has multi-bagger potential over the next 12-18 months. Assuming Phase 1 commissioning goes to plan, I'm particularly looking forward to the December quarter this year.

    *Re financing of Phase 2: Given the permanent and relatively rapid move away from thermal coal towards natural gas and renewables in the US (= a reduction in coal jobs in West Virginia), it makes sense to me that the West Virginian goverment would be keen to continue to support a growth company like Cfoam with low interest loans.
 
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