The latest scheme settlement date is 11 June so it is now less than 5 weeks and the discount represents more than 5x the time value.
The market is now suggesting that Baytex will pull out or that shareholders will (whoever they happen to be now) will vote against the scheme. As Baytex has been working on another scheme to buy in the AUT loan notes, it appears to be committed. Traders who buy now will vote to take $4.10 in 5 weeks' time and will smirk all the way to the bank. It is really quite bizarre.
AUT Price at posting:
$3.95 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held