OIP 0.00% 4.3¢ orion petroleum limited

esg shareholders would do well to look at oip, page-2

  1. 781 Posts.
    Followme,
    With respect, Albers is not the top shareholder, he is a substantial holder. The top shareholders are ESG and Ingalls and Snyder (I&S)and now STO at 19.99%.
    Albers is however, an astute investor and his Octanex (listed on the NSX) has significant cash and holds substantial exploration tenements.
    I&S is a substantial shareholders in ESG also.

    I have resisted posting on OIP but feel that it may be time. I am very bullish on this stock and believe it has significant upside potential. I thnk that Hardmano's valuations are a little shy and hence, here is my interpretation of what OIP and ESG have posted with respect to the JV leases in the Gunnedah region.

    My valuation methodology (but keep in mind it is subject to how the releases are interpreted),

    OIP owns between 20% and 45% of the CSG JV in PEL 427 and 428 (and 455?).
    OIP claims there is approx 3,500 BOE Gas-in-place alone in these JV sites alone, excluding its other leases (including adjacent PEL 6), and excluding oil (it had weak shows on previous drilling).
    But stick to the JV area.
    If we assume 3,500 BOE Gas in place translates to approx 50% recoverable, that would be 1,750 BOE or approx 1,750 PJ.
    There are 1 million GJ in a PJ.
    The ESG sale was priced at $0.66 per GJ.
    1,750 PJ equates to 1,750,000,000 GJ which equates to a valuation of $1,155,000,000.
    OIP's share of this, at its lowest farm-in rate of 20% is of course $231,000,000.
    There are 155M shares on issue.
    Target price is therefore: $1.49

    What this means is that there is a lot more upside in the price of this and ESG (note there are approx 870M shares on issue in ESG however).

    There is a big difference between the two stocks however as ESG had to proving up its gas reserves and its concept of lateral drilling.

    OIP is the owner yet retains a minority interest in the Gunnedah JV, ESG is the operator and has farmed in to the leases.

    I hope this makes sense but once again, it is a subjective interpretation of what has been publicly stated by both ESG and OIP.

    It does not take into account the value of PEL 6, OIP's interest in conventional oil and gas nor its Darling Basin Prospects.
 
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