The half year report had many things in it. One of them was that...

The half year report had many things in it.
One of them was that the margin on US retailing (from continuing operations) is AUD $6.56
Another was that:
* The US business has improved it's position with Brokers from 30th to 7th place in two years,
* The US business has grown from being outside the top 25 Suppliers to Brokers, to 6th place by volume of business, and
* Continuing Operations forward load has grown from 3Twh to 14.5Twh in two years.

FSW, this says to me that growth is increasing in the USA, and while margins are lower than expected, they are still much more healthy than the Australian margins.

It is quite possible that the USA will follow the path of rationalization and margin compression that has happened in Australia, but that will be a long time in the future IMO - based on the market being much more fragmented than the Australian market (which is dominated by a couple of very large players).

I think the risks are to the upside at ERM.