Ausbil put out a substantial shareholder notice last week.. It...

Ausbil put out a substantial shareholder notice last week..

It seems that they bought 6-7m shares to take their holding to circa 40m shares.

That is roughly 7-8% of the register.

I would be surprised if they continue to buy.

However, the much improved chart technicals will have attracted a few hedgies into the stock - but in quantities below disclosure levels.

Th estock has been to 50c in last 12-18 months and could not break through - thus we have hit "overhead resistance". A modest pullback would not be a surprice but should not worry anyone at this stage of proceedings.

Having said that, it is hard to know how many stale bulls are still in there holding out for 50c - and offloading now seeing that they can recover their original cost.

I suspect that many (former stale bulls) will have lost patience before now and moved on to greener fields.

This suggests to me that there may not be a lot of stock to get absorbed before a further push to say 65c.

A modicum of good news - such as the completion of enrollment for the PTSD trial could be the trigger.

Let's face it, once enrollment has finished, they are only dosing these last patients for three months and then tallying the scores prior to an important clinical readout for BNC 210 in July - one would hope.

After a very long wait, shareholders are literally within a few short months of a potentially big news announcement - IF the trials live up to the company's hopes.

Traders in the biotech space generally do not have much patience but in the lead up to an important clinical result such as this, they do tend to load up and hope for a big spike in the price.

Perhaps the accumulation in the shares and the improvement in the share price over the last 4-6 weeks can be explained by that process? Perhaps there is still a lot more accumulation before the big announcement.

The selling seems to have dried up so fasten your seatbelts.

Anyway, aside from BNC 210, there is also likely to be news on the sale of oncology assets before July if the rumors are correct.

While not unimportant, the sale of oncology assets is unlikely to set the world on fire as I get the feeling that the sale price is not likely to be material - unless of course a large pharma group such as Merck has decided to put a foot on these assets and feels the need to pay up.

Aside from that, there is also teh prospect of milestone payments from Merck if/when they commence Phase II trials on BNC 375.

Interesting times...............