End game to the oil rout, page-80

Ok I'll try and break it down from a broader market point of view. The US is dealing with a market correction which could turn into a crash or a deep bear market if they lose control of the market sentiment. They have backed themselves into a bit of a corner because they have run out of levers to pull. The central bankers know that more talk of raising interest rates could destabilise the already volatile market at the moment. They also know if the price of oil falls further they risk blowing up spreads in the oil junk bond market which could spill over into the broader high yield market and become a trigger for a crash. There is no sub-prime this time around but the packaging of junk bonds up in derivative markets is a powder keg that must be kept away from open flames. The US through their futures markets and banks can still control commodity prices for a little while and this is one of the last resort levers that they have. Like stopping a car with the hand brake when the other brakes fail. A bounce in US markets tonight is critical to restore confidence and the market makers will insure that we see a bounce in oil in my opinion. The 1800 level for the S&P 500 and the 15500 level for the Dow are lines in the sand as they represent approximately 15% drops from the May highs. They will need the price of oil up to defend the broader market.

I managed some more vigorous DLS accumulation at the close today, remembering that this is about half the level that Stokes must have bought most of his stake at. With the utmost respect to other posters methods of valuation you'd have to imagine Stoke's advisors would have run through the valuations and the longer run earnings metrics under a variety of oil price scenarios before taking their pivotal stakes in these companies. The oil price slide was no secret at the time of this accumulation strategy. So I'll be very surprised if we don't see a bounce off the 60cents level at least for the short term.

I'm looking out for the second reading of the Q2 US GPD growth figures on Thursday and some jawboning out of Jackson Hole also on Thursday and Saturday to buoy the US markets and oil. If they can't defend the 15% levels we are all in trouble and picking the bottom will be anyone's guess.

Eshmun