End game to the oil rout, page-35

No doubt that in this virtual war, volume will need to come out of the market at these demand levels. This is basic demand-supply economics and we can see a similar situation in iron ore and in previous years within aluminium.
The timing of oil coming out of the market is complex IMHO, while new higher investment hurdles and lower cashflow of E&P companies will address any new volumes coming on, existing production and rate of decline is much more complex. In respect of shale, once a fractured well is set up and pumping, at any oil price, one would not shut the tap as any recovery is cash inflow as all costs (except transport) have been sunk. So the basic idea is show me the rate of decline of existing producing or near start up wells and I'll tell you when oil will recover...