Hi All Just to change things up a bit I have been watching and...

Hi All

Just to change things up a bit I have been watching and reading a lot of commentary about oil's direction and it is quite interesting to note that the message is always the same supply/demand, global growth and Iran oil.

It seems to me that a lot of these commentators are incapable of original thought and once people get a construct and story going it starts to get a life of its own. The excitement on some of the faces of the commentators is palpable as they can't wait to get the story out as if it was their own, but really it's just a variation of the same ol' same ol' ad nauseam until they are sick of it, make their trades, and move on to the next theme. Everyone wants to put there own little spin on it to try and get some advantage. Investors, traders, managers and the media can be quite myopic to a fault.

We have to remember that these things always go in cycles taking casualties along the way. Now there appears to be a notion out there that we are approaching an end game to this cycle in the oil space. The fact is that we don't really know what will drive oil prices back up just like we didn't see the precipitous drop. It could quite easily come out of left field - shock - or could be something more gradual in which markets will try to anticipate.

On CNBC the other night they trotted out a person who apparently was the only person to predict the bear market in oil. That might say a lot for that person- there is always going to be someone who is right - but what does it say about the rest of the managers/commentators. And then there's HC. Well I'm not sure why we bother to read and watch when we can just come to the threads and get all the wisdom of the investing world right here.

Anyhow the purpose of the post is to link up a couple of commentaries made in different parts of the world but essentially the same outlook on oil and commodities. View them with some healthy scepticism as you would with the counter to these views. Hopefully will provide a different perspective.

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/04/mobius-oils-fall-is-sentimental.html



Enjoy

Cheers
BW

_______________________________________________
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There are known unknowns. That is to say, there are things that we
know we don't know. But there are also unknown unknowns. There
are things we don't know we don't know