The ASX allows big fund traders, short sellers, bots, flash-trading etc on our market. We all know how this results in price manipulation. Just over a week ago ELM announced discovery of the richest ever Potash deposit. 2 days of heavy trading eventuated with massive volume. Then the SP went into s steep dive dropping from 95c to 71.5c! That's 25% in 2 sessions!! But what sort of company is ELM? It's an explorer with enough money to complete drilling and produce a JORC (today)and PFS by end September. We have seen how explorers are battling to get funds to convert their deposits into productive mines. Institutions, banks, etc are loathe to stump-up the cash in an uncertain world. So why do i feel differently about ELM?
1) Because we live in an overpopulated world of 7 Billion. 2) We are on the absolute cusp of a serious (and perhaps prolonged) food crisis. 3) Food 9esp grain) prices have started soaring up 30-53% in just 7 weeks!! 4) No possibility this food shortage can be solved in short term. Growing a crop is 12 month project... minimum. 5) Whilst the world economy faces recession Potash prices have doubled in 26 months!! No other commodity can match this. 6) Govts are scrambling to prevent famine and crops require fertiliser. There is NO alternative. 7) ELM's deposit is massive. But even more importantly it's extremely high grade across the hangwall seam which is at least 60million tons in size. (i reckon it will be double that by the time drilling is complete). 8) Hangwall and most of the potash is Shallow. i.e. At 200-280metres its about one-quarter or even one-fifth the depths of potash mines currently in production. 9) Hence, the cost of production will be substantially lower than it's contemporaries. 10) Even if Potash price remains at $575/ton... it is beyond doubt the mine will be very very profitable.
So based on the facts: Why would ELM have problems finding money to develop this deposit? It stands out from anything else in the sheer viability and urgent need for its product. If one focuses on the centre and ingnores the onstant market noise.... it becomes easier to keep faith that this deposit is truly world-class. MM.
K2P Price at posting:
89.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held