A boom in expectations or the next booming industry?
Strong lithium demand growth is expected by many to result in a significant supply shortage in the future.
It is called "the new gasoline" by Goldman Sachs, and even "the world's hottest commodity" by The Economist. The reason why the metal is expected to experience a boom is the surging demand for lithium-ion batteries.
The booming sales of new energy vehicles worldwide will boost lithium carbonate consumption significantly. According to estimates, every 100,000 new energy vehicles (electric bus (40%), electric sedan (20%), hybrid bus (25%), and hybrid sedan (15%)) will create a demand of 5,000 tons to 8,000 tons of battery-grade lithium carbonate, about a rise of 5%-8% in global demand for battery-grade lithium carbonate."
According to MarketsandMarkets, the global lithium market is expected to reach $5.87 billion by 2020 at a CAGR of 13.22% between 2015 and 2020. Citi Research projects the global lithium battery market to be $40 billion by 2020.
The positive expectations are mainly driven by Tesla's (NASDAQ:TSLA) Gigafactory initiative and a strong growth in the energy storage market, which is strongly driven by the global shift toward renewable energy. In addition, auto brands are quite bullish on the electric vehicle industry, higher production in which shall be a strong driver of lithium demand over the next few years