Edison Research values IMU at 4.1c

Given how things have progressed for IMU in the past few months I thought this would be a timely reminder for everyone of the Edison Research paper issued in August 2018:

Valuation: A Phase II deal is the goal
If any of its ongoing or planned clinical trials show a strong efficacy signal with a good safety profile, Imugene could gain a big pharma partner. Assuming a US$84m upfront, regulatory milestones of US$260m for a deal combining HER-Vaxx and KEY-Vaxx,with potential royalties of 15% starting in 2025 for HER-Vaxx or 2027 for KEY-Vaxx, and ending in 2039 (due to 12 years of data exclusivity for biologicals in the US and the likelihood of additional patents on KEY-Vaxx and the new HER-Vaxx composition), Imugene has an indicative equity value on discounted cash flow of A$147m, including pro forma net cash of ~A$27m.
This assumes a Phase Ib/II probability of reaching the market of 20% for HER-Vaxx and10% for KEY-Vaxx,and a 50% probability of a 2021licensing deal.
Our standard 12.5% discount rate is used. We assume Imugene pays an 18% share of its income from HER-Vaxx to Biolife until 2026, and a low single digit royalty on net sales of KEY-Vaxx to OSU.
Our valuation is equivalent to 4.1c per share(undiluted) or 4.0 cents per share after diluting for the 555m options on issue.

Personally, I think this 4.1c/share valuation is probably conservative given how confident Leslie has been in recent media appearances and the fact that the companies research has now been peer reviewed and selected for global presentation.