Pangzi2,
We don't know how the Geological chance of success is measured. But it uses 4 factors, if you apply a 70% chance to each to these you get~25%.
0.7x0.7x0.7x0.7= ~0.25 or 25%
Regarding the pinch out reference.
If you imagine "pinching" the Nanushuk off, as I've illustrated above, this forms the seal.
If it's not pinched off there is no seal and any hydrocarbons are mobile may have transitioned to another location away from Winx.
Some experts may be able to explain it better, that's my guess.
Happy to be wrong.
Cheers
Pangzi2, We don't know how the Geological chance of success is...
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