ebr could be 4/5 months away, page-9

re: moby float analysis Hi Ian

I think if you reread my post I didnt actually say that the Moby float represented value. The post intended to show that buying EBR at the time of the post could have given someone a second means of entry to the well (via Moby as against EBR), if they wanted it.

However I do hold the view that whether Moby are under or overvalued or not, the odds are their share price will STILL go up in the period prior to the drilling of the well.

I do agree with you that the terms for Moby are over the top - but that is not suprising when you consider EBR were effectively signing their own cheque??? And yes the effect of a duster will be calamitous.

But how many oilspecs (non-producers) are bought on the basis of their underlying value???? Not very many I would suggest. I have made perhaps 300 trades on oilspecs in the last 4 years and have never looked at their fundamental value of their exploration holdings. It would be a waste of time. Market behaviour rules the roost in this area (in my view).

Cheers
acturtle