So I rejigged it with revised production numbers to reflect guidance, albeit at the high end, which seems realistic given no reported delays with the wet season etc and tweaked costs for nickel, copper, zinc etc...
I qualified some more numbers such as exploration Q1, was -4.4 less and the budgeted spend for exploration was 23-26, so I'm figuring they could cut to 20 by Q4.
Also dev costs were too high but I can't really quantify this number, except for what was stated in Q2. i.e. -10 but for the year equates to -30 but against exploration (-20) it looks still too high.
I can't seem to account for 27 mill in Q1. They should have had 58 mill cash at bank at the end of Q1, but posted 31 to start Q2. Was there a payment to MUX or MOO or something I missed? Anyway, I don't think it affects EBIDTA as my estimate of their operational expenses should be relatively constant.
Any grey numbers are unqualified. EBIDTA bounces back to 48,2 mill but they could still record a loss I think. -12 tax, -2 interest, -30-33 for depreciation etc. Maybe a 2-5 mill profit if commodity prices hold at current levels or rise by Q4. Depreciation is the killer. Was -46 or -48 last year and -30-33 the year before, so could be as high at 37 this year. That would create a net loss of -2.8.
I didn't count that -10 mill credit payment too in EBIDTA. I think they may have been paid for it from cash missing in Q1. i.e. 27 mill. That leaves 17 to find. They had debt of 33 mill, so perhaps some went to this? Be looking for these answers in the half year report Feb 15.
KZL Price at posting:
32.5¢ Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
