The sums are clear.
Suppose you convince your bank manager to lend you $1,000,000.
Current price $14.
Max price $16 (75% probability) = $150,000
Min price $12 (25% KKR walk away) = ($50,000)
Term of investment 6 months - cost of money 0.06 * 1,000,000 * 0.5 = (30,000)
Approximate expected return (6 months) = $70,000 or 7%
Thats about it, give or take.