The problem EAR has & most spec junior mining stocks is that people put more emphasis on ounces in ground or infrastructure than the importance of having good management. If management over-promise and under-deliver, year-in, year-out, than the market is unforgiving. This is probably the main reason why EAR has had big swings in shareprice between 10c & 40c (then back to 10c) the last couple of years.
Successive EAR management have stated that want to '
prove up enough ounces in ground' before getting BW plant back into operation, which is prudent. Other spec gold stocks rush back into production and have problems. Many end up in VA. The previous two BW plant owners did this and went into VA (
View and Navigator).
EAR have been saying '
near-term production' for about 5+ years. So I remain highly skeptical that there will be first gold pour by end of 2019.
This is but one example... from the EAR-MKO merger presentation (
Nov-2016) which indicated production start around Q3 2017:
Despite 5+ years of extra exploration around in this part of the Yandal, EAR's 2017 BFS relied heavily on just two deposits (Julius & Lotus-Orelia). It will be interesting to see how the updated BFS will reflect the drilling at Mt Joel and a few other deposits. Also, on 24 Jan 2018, EAR stated they had 'commenced' a $5 million deep drilling programme at Lotus-Orelia, but then there was silence.
Two of the last three capital raisings were at shareprice lows (10c-11c). When the market expects the company to raise capital it prolongs those bear markets. (Those that picked up small SPP allocation recently would be happy, I guess) EAR had a -48% shareprice performance last year (key personal leaving: MD and Finance director contributed to EAR's bad performance).
Having said the above, EAR now has new management (CEO: Rajasooriar & addition of an NST member on the board). The new CEO, in particular, has to prove in the next few months that EAR's over-promise, under-deliver culture of the past has changed or there will be no gold production by years end, and it will be another lost year for EAR shareholders. I have been following EAR since prior to its merger with MKO. There are ASX announcements on EAR's website that go back to 2006 list date, so its track record is there in black & white.
The best thing about EAR at the moment is its chart. Strong stage 2 bull run on improving volumes. If new management start delivering than a sustained higher price is possible. If management under-deliver or there are macro issues that come to play, then the trend will reverse again. eg. late Nov to mid-Feb has traditionally been best period for gold stocks (see
XGD thread), while mid-Feb to start Aug can be very underwhelming for long-term ASX gold stock holders.
Some may not like me pointing out some bad things about EARs history, but I'll call the good & the bad as I see it. I've seen this company come in & out of vogue many times in the last few years.
