Just look at what has happened to AED if you want a few bearish...

Just look at what has happened to AED if you want a few bearish thoughts about what can happen to companies engaged in drilling for oil at sea.

Production is not tested in the soon to be spudded hole even though we know there has been oil found there in the past. This may flow too slowly or produce too much water to be viable, or there may be drilling problems with cost blowouts and then flows may be dismal. Significant cap raising (ie dilution) will then be required before any more drilling can take place.

These are just some bearish thoughts as requested, not my predictions of what will happen. I am bullish on TDO and bought more today on the pullback. Provided market sentiment is a little less dismal in a months time you should do OK on any speculative rise post spud and be able to free carry 1/3 to 1/2 your holding to TD.