It appears as though DOWR rights are being mispriced where...

It appears as though DOWR rights are being mispriced where option valuation models are using Tuesday 4 April as the expiry date (being the last day available to trade). From my understanding the value of the option needs to be calculated to 18 April being the date of the retail shortfall bookbuild.

If I’m reading the details in the Entitlement offer booklet correctly, holders of the rights purchased on the ASX will be eligible to receive any excess to the $5.95 price realised under the RSB.

Given that the TERP is $7.00, a DOW price of anywhere between $6.00 and $7.00 would see a huge windfall to DOWR holders without needing to exercise the rights.

Sure, there is a very good chance that the price of DOW will be under $5.95, but based on historic volatility / Beta of DOW, the risk return payoff of DOWR at $0.011 seems to be well out of wack in favour of DOWR holders.

As an example, if DOW can get to $6.50 and a rights holder receives 55 cents per right, this represents a fairly reasonable payback on something that only cost around 1 cent. Certainly worth the (good) chance of a 100% loss if no RSB premium is received.

The interesting thing is DOW only needs to trade at anywhere above $6.00 during this period to allow a DOWR holder to lock in their gain by buying DOW puts (assuming the realised RSB price reflects the prevailing market price).

Am holding DOWR but am considering loading up before end of trading Tuesday.