Downside to continue for AEB?, page-48

You can phrase that as a simple question but the answer to what the exact price will be in an exact snapshot of time a year in advance can't be given. We see rallies (based either on empty hype or mysteriously occuring just before they raise capital, in either case always followed by a drop - draw your own conclusions!) at irregular intervals and one of those may just happen to occur in exactly 12 months. It's silly to even ask the question phrased like that; I can't exactly say something like "1.7c". If you want to ask the question but don't want the analysis, skip below to the ***summary***

For the record, the last time someone asked a similar question was in April last year, they asked me what the price would be in 6 months. I similarly said that was a silly question with a silly timeframe, but I would guess the price likely wouldn't change much in the next 6 months (at the time the price was 5.3c - more than double what it is now, less than one year ago). Incidentally it did indeed sit very stagnant for most of the next six months, and then had some very erratic movement - feel free to check the thread and the chart - I was spot on even thought I really didn't want to comment on such a short timeframe. He ended up challenging me to a bet, which I accepted. We changed the timeframe to 18 months and he bet the price would be 50% higher than at the time, and I bet it would be at least 50% lower (3.5c or less). As we see it is already well under that.

Okay, so while I already have a prediction pending for most of the timeframe, I'll predict the next 12 months. Obviously this is my personal estimate of the future, not any sort of guarantee or advice (I just need to point that out for the sake of site rules). The MC industry loses its hype, which is already fading. AEB fails to deliver good results in a market with decreasing excitement. No significant developments in other pursuits (algae energy/neutriceuticals/etc which will probably be largely glossed over in announcements etc). AEB will put out very optimistic announcements seemingly full of positivity. They will say they are very pleased with progress and results so far. Within 12 months there will be at least 1 more capital raising, before which the price will rise from wherever it is, have some erratic movement around and for while after the capital raising, and settle at a lower price than before the capital raising once the dust settles. At best, the price will sit around 2-3c before the next capital raising, with perhaps brief spikes above (especially before the next capital raising), but excluding fairly brief movements above the base level, it will remain before 3c. Perhaps more likely, a new channel around 2-2.5c or somewhere between 1 and 2c will form. Once the dust has settled after one or two capital raisings in the next 12 months the price will settle into a channel averaging under 2c or perhaps a downwards trend.

Much more important than pinpointing the exact price at an exact snapshot in time is the overall picture. I predict that any spikes above 3c will be brief and difficult to sell into. It's interesting to see that around current levels liquidity is actually quite high.

Unless something changes, which is unlikely, in around a month from now, the 2c support/all time low will be tested. This is pretty soon and will be a fairly critical time, determining whether AEB can maintain support at that level for the time being or fall through it and find a new floor, probably at 1 or 1.5c. AEB is likely to try to release some sort of hypey announcement to try to prevent the price falling through support, which in the short term may or may not be successful.

I am sure we will see a price below 2c within 12 months, probably 1.6c, perhaps lower.

As I have always said, one thing AEB is very good at is working a crowd and raising capital. Likely, they will come up with some promise or hype, and the share price will be boosted, and a capital raising will come shortly after. I expect the next one will be below 3.6c, perhaps 2.5 or 3c, despite lower prices shortly before and after it.

***To summarise my predictions***: In the next 12 months we will see the price fall below 2c at least briefly, and there will be opportunities to buy in at that price.

We will likely see prices in the 1-1.5c range hit, but not necessarily settle there.

We may or may not see prices above 4c, and if we do, it will be difficult to sell into anything over 5c, probably anything over 3.5c (it won't stay there long and volumes will be low).

The general pattern of the chart will be either stagnant channels or spikes followed by downwards trends, followed by either stagnant channels at the new lows or another spike and downwards trend. There will be no upwards trends of any significant timeframe. Note that AEB has never had one, I am highly confident they never will - this should be extremely concerning to anyone holding or considering holding AEB.

If forced to guess where the price will be in March 2019, I would say between 1 and 2c. I expect 1c will hold for more than 12 more months before being broken. It is, however, possible that there will just happen to be a brief spike higher at that time.

Just in case it's not perfectly clear, the above is my own personal opinion and predictions, not any sort of guarantee or advice. Only make your own decisions based on your own personal research.