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0.0¢ tissue therapies limited

Yeah I have had math like that, for fair present value for a...

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TomBombadil

66 Posts.

21/11/14

19:31

Post #: 14332930
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Originally posted by PleaseDYOR ↑

Summing it up the SP is a function of probability of different outcomes discounted for risk and uncertainty.

If probability of approval with no further delays is 60% SP is likely to be 60c on approval that expected value is .36 cents (.6*60c) if there is 35% of delays and associated CR the SP is likely be low say 15c that is expected value of .0525 if there is any outright rejection I dont see any share at all so 5%x0 =0.

That leaves expected value of 36c+5.25c = 41c at the moment, currently trading at around 30c which represents an 11c discount for the uncertainty or the market sees the risks or SP levels at a different level.

If anyone has anymore information on the what they see as the probability of the three options or just their own assessment of the 3 outcomes or expected SP on each outcome I would be interested to know.

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Yeah I have had math like that, for fair present value for a while, and near as I can tell, the only explanation I have had for the share price history, is me and the market have very different ideas on how likely approval is.

TIS Price at posting: 29.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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0 Great analysis

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