Trying to work out the possibility of any competing bid is a...

Trying to work out the possibility of any competing bid is a tricky exercise due to the various fingers in the MCC pie but I'll take a stab at it. I think that Posco would feel very uncomfortable about it's rival Arcelor Mittal('AM') gaining control with Peabody so it would be a potential rival bidder but would presumably also want to do a JV if it is not prepared to live with it's rival controlling MCC. On the other hand it may be prepared to live with AM's JV control subject to appropriate undertakings.

I don't know much about Citic but it does appear to be a hands on investor so it can't be excluded and it does have the largest holding. FIRB approval could be an issue but ATM it seems that at least around 48% is already foreign owned. There may be other Industry players interested but I suspect the messy register could put many off.

I wouldn't discount the possibility of a rival bid but on balance I suspect it may not happen. If so, the most likely outcome may end up a negotiation that results in the AM JV increasing it's bid to secure Board approval. I can't see a bid less than $16.50 having a chance of Board approval having regard to the earlier offers and the steps since taken by MCC to expand the business.

ANZ