Almost two weeks since my last post on this thread (7.5 trading...

Almost two weeks since my last post on this thread (7.5 trading days later, thanksgiving) and the DJIA is pretty much in exactly the same boat as it was then. Still battling the descending resistant trend line from the Oct07 highs. It would not surprise me if it breaks through this trend line as I don't think the resistance is that heavy however I do think that the ascending trend line from April 09 is very resistant and as mentioned in previous posts on this thread it has shown this by having approx 7 attempts at breaking through in the last 6 months only to fail on each occassion.

In the last week or so the index value has not bothered this line as the DOW has tracked sideways. Also worth noting is the tightening of the Bollinger Bands (2nd chart below) which would indicate that a break out is defintely on the cards one way or the other. Worth noting that every other time the bollys have tightened like this the break has been to the upside however the ascending trend line has been considerably higher and has proven to be the target or the end of the rally in each case.

My view hasn't changed since my last post which is that the index value will more than likely retreat given that there is no real spuring fundamental reason why it should break out? Perhaps the job figures on Friday night may provide some hope for a break out but with unemployment still at 10% will it be warranted? An attempt is on the cards early next week imo but whether it breaks out remains to be seen, I think not.

DAILY 10 month Chart with slow stochastic




DAILY 10 month chart with slow stochastic/Bollinger Bands



DAILY 3 month chart, interesting to note that the short term trend line has caught the index value on a few occassions since early November (yellow line). A break/close below this line will most probably result in the next line underneath becomming the next support level.




The WEEKLY chart shows that the intraday action has broken through the descending trend line last week but the close value is still sitting underneath. The weekly slow stochastic has turned up but is still very much in the overbought area.



The MONTHLY chart is not so clear as my incredible charts programme takes a while to sort out the candles but it clearly shows that November closed below the trend line. It also indicates that the bottom ascending trend line cacthing the action has been tested a recent months. Going by the MONTHLY slow stochastic you would be forgiven for thinking the index is on it's way to the moon as it is still pointing almost vertically!