dot com, page-4

macrae12...

One assumes "costs" remained relatively static for the first half due to the sudden nature of the changes impacting the markets...clearly they will be reduced somewhat for the second.

Interestingly, it is the nature of such IT businesses that the major cost of doing business (ie, providing services), automatically rises or falls in direct response to the level of work on the books (number of IT staff assigned)...there is always a lag if/when projects end ubruptly, etc due to the need for OKN to honour cantractual arrangements with staff.

Speaking of which, by far the Company's biggest single cost are it's staff...who's numbers pretty much ebb and flow on a project to project basis. As such, in effect, OKN's cost structure will (by default), fall in line with any lost pojects (lost revenue) going forward.

This insulates the Company to some extent...and on this basis, real revenue would need to fall a long long way for OKN to reach its level of "fixed costs" and thereby end payment of dividends in my view.

Debt is low...and appears sorted for the next 3 years...the interest payments on which (by memory?) represented about 4% or so of last years EBITDA (higher interest rates then)...and even if EBITDA were to say halve this year, would still represent just 5-7% of due to the lower interests rates apparent.

Remember, falling interest rates and rising inflation are the friend of responsible debt...at the right times...just as long as you never need to renew it under duress.

I suggest OKN are not in this situation.

As I said at 80c...this looked cheap...its recent visit to the 50's simply meant it got cheaper.

Market seems to agree today, in spite of no news from the Company since...lol

As I suggested, the overdone nature of the sell-off was nothing more than a game for the shorts to push good people out of a good stock...it appears they have finished.

By the way...

binga01...

I made no such claims that a dividend would be coming, as you suggest in a previous post.

I also notice vayama recently suggested I said the div "will be the same as last years"...bzzzzt, wrong too!

And finally someone twisted my comments to suggest I did not "believe OKN was worth 80c".

I fear some here simply just make it up as they go along?

lol

These sorts of misrepresentations are tinged with agenda...sadly...twisted to achieve a desired result.

What I actually said was...

"When the divvies are announced and paid, within a month or so, we get to pocket some 6-8c per share on an 80c stock?

For those unaware, that’s a half-year dividend...double this for our PE calcs.

At 12-16c annualised dividend, we are looking at 15-20% returns...lol"

Firstly, did you notice the question mark at the end of the first sentence?...???...it was a question!...!!!

Now, the Company has NOT announced there will be no a dividend, as such, in the absence of a directive to the contrary, we can only assume there will still be one.

I personally expect there will still be a dividend, but I am not saying there will be one, because I simply do not know this...how could I? I am just as likely to be right (or wrong) as others who say there will not be one!

For you to suggest I am close to the Company, therefor know this is clearly self serving.

I posted my opinion...lol...with a question mark??? It would appear the view of some is that “opinion” is to be reserved for them alone?

And wilst I am in the swing of it, the previous half-year dividend was 12c, following an 11c dividend prior to that, making a total of 23c fully franked dividend for the year...this was based on an NPAT of about $27m for 2008

They are telling us the NPAT for the first half of 2009 will be about $6.5m...and this has been generated from what some might argue was the worst period our markets have seen for some time...it follows that we may expect a full-year NPAT of some $13m, or potentially more, especially given the liquidity injections likely to stem from government bodies in the months ahead.

The end result however will directly relate to measures undertaken by the Company going forward...specifically to reduce costs, I assume via staff numbers?

So...arguably (in my opinion), we still should be looking at a full year NPAT of about half of last years?

Some will disagree, but I guess this is their opinion...and I defend their right to it, just as I do mine!

Anyway, assuming they do pay a divvie, realistically with NPAT likely to be half of last years, half of last years dividend of 23c is 12.5c...so lets say 12c for a potential full year dividend, with some luck, all things being equal.

Just to make sure there is no confusion, I said FULL YEAR dividend.

lol

Conjecture...granted...but you get that with opinions!

As I see it, OKN's profits have dropped, not disappeared, as such it is probably safe to assume there will probably still be a dividend of some sorts...but will it be 8c...6c...4c...less...will their be two, or just one for the year?

I guess this is where the market kicks in.

At 50c, the market was suggesting NO dividend, or perhaps 2c...but today, in spite of the absence of any discussion from the Company, the market is telling us a half-year divvie is now likey to be closer to 4c or 5c.

So, what to make of the recent sell-off then?

As I said, nothing but manipulative effects of shorting, available only to a select few, which as I see it, destroyed for a period the natural trading of OKN and in the process, the investments of everyone who was flushed out.

Opinion of course.

This company produces decent products (services), employs well over 1000 people and pays taxes...it is disgusting that market shorting, which in effect can manufacture weakness in an entity's ongoing viability (when there might not otherwise have existed problems), can be sponsored by the market regulators in any form...purely so a very small minority can profit on the back of other people's losses?

Fortunately, OKN appears sound, with manageable debt...this does not however preclude various players from trying to create the impression of potential problems. Not unlike the sad ongoing efforts of a few posters on here...who live by the view, if they throw enough mud some will stick.

Shorters are no different...sell enough stock and...

Anyway, for the record, my brother is NOT Neil Wilson (CEO of OKN), sorry to let a few facts get in the way of a good story. Just goes to show how many here are happy to jump to conclusions without the slightest piece of due diligence...I note sad individuals elswhere, eqaully with foot in mouth as they sprout off accusations, clearly with little or no actual knowledge of what they are posting about.

Childish actually...and far too much of this going on in my view.

Now, once again in the interests of complete transparency, my brother is in middle/upper management at OKN, he is one of some 1200 people (lol) who work for the Company, but has NOTHING to do with the corporate side of things and/or decision making at any level, other than his own specific area of responsibility, directly relating to development programming, staff management of his own area, etc.

He has never told me anything even slightly sensitive in any way, for one very good reason...he is not privvy to this sort of information...period!

On this issues, I draw parallels to when TLS stock was recently sold off 20% or so in two days (last month)...say, what if we were to ask a Telstra retail manager, or perhaps technical operative, or I know, what about the voice recognition software on the faults line, what they thought of the selling?

What do you think they could tell us?

lol

The comparisons are real....yet, the gallery here went off half cocked, quacking because I spoke to my brother?

Makes one wonder how many posts we read on here are formulated with such limited understanding of how things work...clearly on the back of adopting limited responsibility for their comments...often posting damning, defaming and generally disgusting stuff about real individuals, without the slightest effort to actually determine if what they are saying is in fact accurate or otherwise, nor of course, to consider the effets on those they target.

Some it appears hold absolutely no concern for others on here...none what so ever.

It really is like pass the parcel in here at times...and I suggest this is a common problem on all such sites, where immature adolescents, all powerful hiding behind the safety of their screens, run from idea to idea, rumour to rumour...and never for one second take responsibility for the content of their posts.

I would love to see the change in behaviour of so many on here, if their real identities were somehow able to be retreived when needed...for all to see.

Hang on...you mean they can be?

lol

Finally, I am not not holding OKN right now...but will again soon...the recent rise from the 50's was a good ride and just as we had players pushing the stock down recently (way below my first buy at 80c, I see we now have similar players pushing it up with equally suspect intent.

My entry average ended up being a lot lower than I originally expected, as such, my intended re-entry (after things settle) will likewise be adjusted lower.

This has much higher to rise in my view, but in the interim, some players are working it over...and it is a little hard to say what their target ranges are?

Cheers!