Marketinfo- Hard to make broad comments re Canning as it clearly contains diverse plays, but looking at your focus on Yulleroo, yes, have read those reports in the past, with the latter looking like it was compiled by Arc and then provided to the Oil and Gas review, so what we are reading is Arc's interpretation. They feel that reservoir quality will improve updip from where they are drilling, and Kimberley felt that based on discovery well, they would get a reasonable natural flow if no formation damage, and probably good commercial rates from fraccing and/or horizontal wells. They seem to differ on P10 upside, and also on gas/condensate ratio, with Arc looking at 10mmbbl per 100 bcf more or less. It would have been good to see Arc come in with some plan to avoid reservoir damage given that that appears the only risk. i.e. it appears to be a simple structure and clearly gas charged, so reservoir performance is the issue. On the other hand, after this well, it may be that they could use a coiled tube sidetrack after using the same unit on SB, which is hopefully the way they will go.
Either way, Yulleroo is a very intresting high potential well, but I would not count on a definitive answer with this well. Could be lucky though.
Re commercial threshholds for gas, during AGM Eric mentioned that they may well come in commercial well below the previously stated 500 bcf figure ( I think 250-300bcf was bandied about), and with condensate present, odds of commerciality improve considerably.
I think it's just a matter of time, with Valhalla looking interesting having logged "moveable" hydrocarbons, SB very interesting and a potentially large resource of gas, and possible oil at depth or downdip, and with each play type having multiple, significant follow ups.
They've barely started in the Canning, are well supported by existing production/reserves at current prices, and have the potential multi bagger opportunities of a pure speccy.
ARQ Price at posting:
0.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held