I've been doing some expected value maths of DCL's announcement...

I've been doing some expected value maths of DCL's announcement of their partnership with a big 4 bank. Check it out.

Potential FUM if the pilot successful: The mortgage market in Australia is worth $1.6 trillion dollars according to Delloite, so with a big 4 bank moving forward to use DCL as their fractional property platform it's easy to see that $10 billion FUM is a conservative estimate. 

Chance of success: At a minimum, the chance of success is not zero. No organisation would engage in a pilot of this nature if the odds of success weren't high, but just to be conservative let's just say 20% chance of success. $10b x 20% = $2b expected FUM.

DomaCom revenue: As DCL takes 80bps (0.8%) per year, that would generate annual revenue of $160m for DCL. $2b x 0.8% = $160m.

Market cap: Let's assume as a high-growth stock they have a revenue multiple of 10-20x. That would value DCL at $1.6 billion or $3.2 billion respectively. 

Have a go at changing any assumptions that you think may be off, but it's clear that this news is massive for DCL no matter what sushi says.