CMC 0.00% 1.1¢ china magnesium corporation limited

I think the current sales figures are irrelevant, and doubt they...

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    I think the current sales figures are irrelevant, and doubt they are even producing at the full 5000tpa. Also likely that they may be selling pure Mg at the gate to local buyers at discounted prices, rahter than alloy.
    The figures to watch will be the Sept q after the full 20,000tpa plant commissioning is completed, and the plant is in full production. Also they will be selling Mg alloy, not Mg, giving a $500/t advantage, although all of the product at this stage will be sold locally, which may mean a discount to the international prices.
    The broker figures near $3200/t alloy were confirmed recently, (but the latest report uses $2900), and the total costs of production of $2300 ($2000 variable, and $300 fixed) are the same on all reports.
    The company expects $700/t margin at phase I, which different reports have used, or scaled back.
    The latest report uses a margin of about $600, and assumes startup to 20K at mid year.
    The figures at NPAT are
    2012 2cents/sh
    2013 9.9 cents/sh
    2014 20.5 cents
    2015 32.4 cents.
    At a "steady state" production of 20k, the NPAT is about 5 cents.
    This does not include the $3m pa from the FeSi plant.
 
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