Long term financial sustainability, is this not a debate then on quality and margins?
And a minor yet important debate about fast entry and timing.
I agree the Chinese will drop anything that is not profitable and with that any loyalties.
IMO answer the below questions and you will have a better idea around who will make it.
What is the LCE demand for the battery market? Is it 99.5% LCE or lower, or is demand for 99.995% and higher?
What are the markets for low grade batteries (<99.5%) and high grade batteries >99.995%?
What is the price premium or difference between < or = to 99.5% LCE compared to 99.995% and above?
What is the cost of extracting brines vs hard rock to LCE?
What quality LCE product do brines vs hard rock produce?
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Pulling numbers from Deutche the biggest competitive advantage for PLS is joining up with downstream producer GLC. This brings their on paper LCE COP down to around USD 3000 / tonne (8x$200/tonne spod + $1550/tonne conversion). We know ORE is producing industrial grade LCE for >$3000 / tonne from their last quarterly, though by 2025 ORE should have sorted out their issues and are forecast to have a COP of USD 2500 / tonne.
Above price chart obviously shows there is demand more for premium battery grade product. > $5000 / tonne price difference. This would make a hard rock venture more profitable over brines producing <99.5% LCE. This is now and not neccesarily the future. Seems spodumene would need to have a superior LCE product that warants a price premium of at least >$500 / tonne over brines to be competitive long term.
So IMO it comes down to quality and demand.
Anyway, PLS is a shot duck at the moment.
@HappyCats I notice you like KDR. Might want to check the iron content in the spodumene there...........
