Much of my post is indeed my own thoughts Anatol, as we both know that I have not spoken to any of the above parties, AQO, DLS, Magnum. However there are many clues and markers that have given rise to my conclusions. AQO management are making the best of a bad situation, because Magnum Hunter outmanoeuvred them during the farm-in negotiations. Originally Magnum were going to buy AQO shares at a premium and fund $50 million of the exploration and development. Then it all went to hell and Magnum ended up with the rights to the farmin, BUT it cost them nothing because they sold NSE some unwanted acreage in the U.S and in return, NSE is now their Australian proxy company.
Without going further into it. I can see no way that DLS loses in this situation. Either they get AQO acreage with a large carry (that for now is questionable) or, they sell to Magnum. btw - You mentioned that DLS has 3D seismic of PEL 570. I am fairly sure they won't be giving it to Magnum if DLS do not succeed. It will cost them.
Then there is the fact that DLS has acreage all around PEL 570, which obviously shows that Magnum views it as very valuable too. DLS got the acreage (PEL 101) in a T/O in 2012 for approx $200 per acre if you include the infrastructure value of Acers assets. NSE paid double that to farm-in to PEL 570.
I very much agree that U.S knowledge in regards to right gas and shale are needed in all of Australia's basins, perhaps DLS do see value in having Magnum as a defacto partner in PEL 570. If you know DLS like I do, then you would understand that DLS prefer to have good parters, they don't like to operate, when other can. So the acreage actually fits very well into DLS long term business plan.
Magnum is a $2 billion dollar company. They are offering about $50 million worth of stock, or 2.5% of their company, so thats all the Cooper will be worth to them for the foreseeable future. Hence, it will not be a big focus for them, even if their management are talking up the Cooper Basin right now. They are trumpeting their own horn. Clearly Magnum management are good at doing deals, but are they good oilers.... I don't know.
Regarding the prospectivity of PEL 570, I think only time and drilling and testing will prove whether it is better than the central part of the basin. Origin/Senex have yet to really test it so, we can talk about it again in 8-12 months.
I wish I could look at NSE differently, but for now I cannot, all I can see is debt, dilution and a total change in the company's long term goal. Of course, I wish you and all NSE shareholders do well in the future. It has potential, but its not for me.
NSE Price at posting:
16.5¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
AQO Price at posting:
33.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Not Held
DLS Price at posting:
$1.51 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held