Hey Auto with the greatest respect plus acknowledgement of your expertise I can't help to think you're adding complexity into what is an already complicated industry with lots of moving parts. Your assumptions etc can be all turned on its head in a heartbeat.
Find it, drill it and sell it and hopefully make a profit along the way. Do all this while being proactive , reactive and and above all, flexible.
An oversimplification I know but what hope do we have to work things out if the so called experts can't.
Anyhow not having a go at you but some of your analyses and machinations are doing my head in.
Cheers
BW