I agree Catlady, I dont think its a "Mystery". As you have...

I agree Catlady, I dont think its a "Mystery".
As you have pointed out, Commsec's forecast is almost exactly what I came up with above.
Obviously the market knows all about it and is happy that the yield is going to drop from high 8%'s in 11/12 FY to high 4%'s in 12/13 assuming 15c div and a price of $3.10

Its worth noting that the avg yield has been circa 9% over the past 3 years and in the mid 7s over 7yrs. I do concede the last few years have been tough ones in the markets and this may have contributed to the elevated averages. Also I further note the TTS yield was circa 5.8% in 06 and dropped to 4.5% at the peaks of the last boom in 07.

So the recent rise, whilst being in line with the market over the past month (double the asx 200 over 3 months at circa 10%), would seem to loosely indicate that holders are happy with a much lower projected yield over the short term than they have been over recent history. Or, holders are putting some faith in a large payout from the Victorian Govt re the poker machine licenses.

I still think TTS is a great company and is a good long term hold in a portfolio. What will happen with the price over the next 12 months? I have no idea personally, however I will look for an entry if there is a pull back into the mid/upper $2s