There are key factors that would justify a new graphite project:
1. Prices for all grades of graphite powder increasing significantly (>20%) over a 24 month period (this has not happened with prices actually decreasing for fines (SYR supply) with prices well below the 2009 - 2012 era.
2. End user product shortages, production delays, & higher prices due to short supply of graphite powder (this has not happened or will happen in the foreseeable future).
3. Specific country government subsidising new graphite projects in reaction to protecting internal usage of graphite projects (this has never happened to date). Should the supply / demand equilibrium skews negative, then there will be a reactionary response to new graphite project financing.
Finally, any new project today that does joins SYR in production, will put additional pressure on pricing as you cannot add new supply to a market that cannot absorb significant tonnage. SYR is living on the working capital from investors, with very little cash flow to subsidise the company's cash burn, and with the Chinese's only reaction is to lower prices adding more pressure on the company. This is a guaranteed path to insolvency.
If a financial stress test was performed on SYR, the result would not be favorable.
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