1. The gig factories will be built with extensive Chinese government financial assistance to supply the EV market for China. Note NO CHINESE produced EV's are suitable for international export due to poor consumer safety regulations, international standards of automotive manufacturing quality, and import restrictions by a majority of first and second world countries (i.e. See the Chinese made Cherry vehicle as a prime example.)
2. For the Chinese market, they will hit the US$ 100 Kwh target, but keep in mind the quality of the EV batteries produced in China do not meet international standards, hence the low prices of EV's with subsides in China. One key reason Tesla is in China is to produce batteries at a lower cost (labor costs considerable less). Until EV's become practical in range used outside urban areas, acceptance of hybrids will outpace EV's for years to come. The same subsidies in many countries are available to HEV's. Outside of China, EV sales are a fraction as EV's are very expensive and from last check, a Tesla sold in AU or Hong Kong can exceed US$ 200K...way out of my league as for 95% of consumers. I would present the point that EV's subjected to the same market forces as standard vehicles would not be successful without forced government compliance.
3. Total EV sales were ~ 2 million units in 2018 compared to 92 million standard vehicles; granted sales have increased due to government mandate or highly dedicated folks who are focused eliminating fossil fuels. No, I do not see market evidence that graphite demand for EV's will increase significantly for the next 5 years, yet E-Bikes (2-3 kg battery) are selling at a rate of ~ 15 million units per year where I believe demand will explode as the purchase price is reasonable and more available to 100's of millions of potential customers; focusing mostly in Asia.
4. We have an accord on a majority of your points, but graphite is NOT a commodity in the general sense for the majority of applications, yet can be applied to refractories, steel, and recarburisers. This is not the case as the more specific / technical the graphite product, there are fewer suppliers, higher prices, and longer term supply contracts. The reason natural graphite refractories are considered commodities as refractory manufacturers can formulate to ANY natural graphite signature. This is to ensure an uninterrupted supply of graphite despite any quality issues each signature may possess as refractories are the largest consumer of natural graphite in the world. Plastics / polymers, engineered products, lubricants, dispersions, coatings, medical device, etc. require very specific technical specs that one maybe two signatures can meet, so competition is not as fierce, prices are considerably higher, and customer loyalty is a competitive advantage.
5. SPG / ANY anode grade graphite - as a brief overview, any new anode graphite grade, depending on the battery chemistry or application, has specific performance metrics that have to be met and not every graphite grade (natural or synthetic) will meet TAP density, energy density targets, BET, PSD, or morphology specs. Even though the term SPG is used extensively, only MCMB grades are truly spherical graphite as SPG produced from natural flake viewed as an SEM is oblong or potato shapes, with multiple layers as SPG graphite is produced from high centrifugal forces shaping the flakes into a balled shape. The SPG flake then has to be coated through a proprietary CVD or other carbon coating process to modify the BET. Unless the SPG is coated, the surface area is to high (>20 - 30 g/m2) and needs to meet what a customer (s) has requested from ~ 2.0 to 15 - g/m2 BET.
With that, a battery manufacturer performs long term cycling tests, depending on the application, that can range from 50,000 cycles to more than 200,000 cycles for start / stop applications. Medical device batteries can take more than 3 years for obvious reasons. Cycle tests take from 18 months to 24 months for lab coin cell testing, then another 6 to 8 months for field testing to make sure real world use does not expose consumers to any potential dangerous health or safety issues. These metrics do not apply to Chinese battery manufacturers as they have their own metrics for qualification standards.
6. Agreed that cost reductions are relative to volume / capacity increases and as with any production, continuous improvements will lead to cost reduction from a manufacturing standpoint, yet raw materials are still critical factor that has yet demonstrate any real cost improvements due to the limited compatibility of a graphite signature or synthetic graphite grades which continues to keep carbon conductive additives on the high end of the pricing spectrum.
As for Musk, his eccentric, unpredictable & behavior (recently punished by the FTC) and comments have cost investors in Tesla MILLIONS, so anything he says needs to be taking with a nanometer grain of salt and hope he stays in a secluded place.
7. When reviewing the macroeconomic data on the automotive industry, global economic growth, and natural graphite consumption over the past 5 years, EV's have had little affect when compared to the steel industry, oil & gas exploration & production, which drives steel production and higher consumption of natural graphite for refractories. When reviewing electrode prices for steel or aluminum production, prices have skyrocketed which also directly affects pricing of machined electrode scrap used to produce secondary synthetic graphite powders; a direct substitute for natural flake graphite in a number of industrial, engineered products, and lubricant applications. In summary, the number of factors that directly or indirectly affect supply / demand / pricing of natural graphite are numerous and to be able to say one factor has more affect over another is not a prudent position in any industry.
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