In place potential is a long way away from a 1p reserve. its...

In place potential is a long way away from a 1p reserve.
its easy to be blinded by the massively large in place potential number.
As for fluctuating numbers, ASIC got tougher on promoting in place potential Which slowed some over zealous estimates. On leakage... Not relevant, that's why there is drill spacing.
Only relevant if holes are too close together, and this is not the case at Clear creek.
Fluctuating 1,2 and 3p numbers can happen for all sorts of reasons.
A well that goes to water for instance it could have its reserves reduced to zero.
as more holes are drilled a geological model is made from the logs and production characteristics, and a reserve estimate is made based on the prevailing gas price and cost of extraction at the time.
unfortunately for marion they have drilled more holes, and production has been very poor...
Water is a big problem, and water production volumes are now available, which were not in 2007.
it could be they have actually reduced their reserves by developing them. Because the consultants have more information to go on than they did in 2007
Marions reserve report always seemed to be at the high end of credibility.
i find it interesting that one of Marion's major breach conditions of its finance agreements was failing to provide a new reserves report by dec 2013.. Something it still can't seem to be able to produce.
A reserve report for Clear Creek should only take a few weeks.
i look forward to the latest reserves report that was promised in a recent announcement.
20 mmcf/day.... That's just laughable. History shows they will struggle to maintain 1 mmcf/day unless they drill many more holes and do extensive reworking of the wells.