I want to start this post by saying as a long term shareholder...

I want to start this post by saying as a long term shareholder I'm as mad as anyone about the prospect of selling for 42c.

However the way I see the current situation I don't believe the directors have much choice but to recommend the action.

Why, well if we review:

- AWE have they have around 34% in rough numbers
- 21% of the shareholding has turned since the offer, and I think they are correct in assuming most of this will be to short term traders who where hoping for a better offer but who will sell now as they won't want to hold for the potential fall back in share price in the short term, some of this buying is also probably by friendly brokers to the offer, always planning to accept.
- This will almost certainly put AWE above 50%
- 50% is the critical number not 90% why:

At 50% they sack the board and stick in their own people who are not going to act in the best interests of the small shareholders of the company they wanted to 100% acquire and

At 50% they can and I suspect will move to de-list the stock
they have said so much on section 12 of their bidders statement and no one here wants to be holding the stock if that happens (try selling your stake then if you need to)

As a director I can't see how they could not recommend the offer now given their requirement that they must have the shareholders interests in mind. Saying do not sell in those circumstance is in my view like saying its ok to hold shares in a company that will soon have a hostile board and planning to de-list. That I think would have got them sued if it plays out that way.

The real shame of it is the capital raising recently - that was the kick in the guts by the board, it held the share price down provided the launch pad for the bid.

I think some of the directors will also be regretting having to sell for 42c given some of the holdings they have.

All of the above said I will hold off until 1 July at least for tax benefits and just to see what happens over next week or so, but I think the writing is on the wall.

Dazzler