I enjoyed your Overview post 'threebeez', it was very thought provoking, and I agree with your perspectives to a considerable extent. However I view your 2030 timeframe as too pessimistic given the earnings and cashflow growth that should start to be reported from FY21 onwards.
By my forecasts (that assume reasonably steady Plantation operating profits and match planned Harvest proceeds) I expect Cash EPS to increase in FY21 and accelerate rapidly (+30% per year) thereafter as heartwood tonnages increase significantly. This will also see a material turnaround in Operating Cashflow. On my P&L I am anticipating EPS of ~6c in FY21 ramping up to ~25c in FY25 (when +5,000t of heartwood is scheduled for harvest and sale). Yes, this is a decade away however a largely locked-in stream of heartwood and oil revenue in my view makes for a compelling investment thesis on a long-term timeframe.
But I do align with your cautious perspective over the near term, which in my view offers a potential opportunity to buy cheaper shares. My strategy is to ensure I have a full portfolio weighting by the end of FY19, and I expect stockmarket vagaries to offer a lower entry point than the current share price over the next 2 1/2 years.
TFC Price at posting:
$1.52 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
