The success (or otherwise) of Repsol/Arcadi/Tower’s...

The success (or otherwise) of Repsol/Arcadi/Tower’s Welwitschia-1 well (WW1) will one way or another have profound consequences for the future of GBP. GBP (through Jupiter) hold two of the adjoining licence areas, and these may host similar structures to the one WW1 is now targeting.

WW1 is being drilled way off the coast of Namibia. The partners are chasing a MASSIVE oil target; as much as 11 billion barrels of the sticky stuff.

The original WW1 well was spudded on 23 April 2014. This well encountered problems with the wellhead housing which had ‘slumped’. The operators decided to re-spud. The re-spud (WW1A) occurred on 1 May. WW1A is located 50 meters from the original. WW1A encountered problems with its BOP. Work has now been temporarily halted.

As I understand it, WW1A was stopped about 400 meters above the main target. There are also rumours that they have encountered oil and gas seeps.

If they get lucky and hit the mother-load this should happen about 5 days after drilling recommences. My guesstimate date for penetration of the main target is now 1 June. If they do find the potential of 11 billion barrels then the TRP SP is likely to rise about fifty times above its current price 3p.

Yesterday in the UK TRP updated the market on the technical problems and the TRP SP responded favorably, closing up 11% on strong volume. GBP UK finished up 9%.

GBP have opened their data room and are looking farm-in partners. I have no doubt that these discussions are well advanced and that all parties are waiting for the success or otherwise of neighbouring WW1A. If this well is successful it will massively increase the perceived chances of success on GBP's blocks, and that will massively strengthen GBP’s hand in their negotiations with potential partners. All of a sudden GBP will go from being a ‘sleepy’ company to a valuable company in the global oil spot light. And that comrades will no doubt be reflected in a greatly enhanced SP.

K