OK Monday. You have exercised your right to bitch and moan about your disappointment with where things are. Repeatedly. But apart from venting, what are you achieving? I'm not one to offer advice on what and when you should buy, hold or sell....but perhaps I along with many others are entitled to request that this discussion forum returns to being such.
In that vein, can I offer an alternative take on the despondency of some here about Ohm progress. I am not about to suggest that Ohm progress is great....but I suggest that some here have allowed themselves to lose objectivity and to confect a slower than expected take-up, into a disaster; and are taking anecdotal and circumstantial data points (if we can call it that) and diagnose an incompetent sales team and management that need replacing!
My take is that with a combination of over-egging from a naive management, an unquestioning and equally naive retail shareholder base, and the harsh sober reality and complexity of introducing Ohm into the market place....there is a huge gap between expectations created and results delivered (to date). And so, perhaps understandably, but definitely not justifiably (IMO), many here are struggling to move on from their disappointment of where BUD
is not. It makes little sense to dwell on this as clearly the expectations were not realistic. OK...a bit of time to vent anger, frustration and disappointment....but really....all these self professed investing experts who would also argue that investing is a rational process which should be free of emotions, are proving that they are only viewing it through emotional lenses.
A more fruitful discussion and analysis, IMO should be on where BUD
actually is. There was a long lead time to get Ohm going with channels and trials etc and material sales only started being reported in Q1CY18. So we only have 4 quarters of OHM revenue reported. Other than that, BUD revenue consists only of Cloud sources, of which Thor was the dominant component and has now become effectively the only component of Cloud revenue. I've had a crack at separating Ohm and Thor revenue over the last 4 quarters and have come up with the following:
The 'Total' revenue figures are as reported in 4C's and the guesstimate for Thor based on A$165k/month under old SoW and A$138k/month for new SoW. Ohm revenues being the balancing figure. Now, we know the old SoW only ran for 2 of the 3 months in Q3CY18, and we know that the new SoW was
signed at the end of November 2018....but as I can not see OHM sales going backwards (it is illogical for a SaaS service to go backwards without a material and reportable event/s), I have assumed that Thor did not commence the retainer under new SoW in a 'holiday' month. So assumed zero Thor for Dec, give or take.
Happy to debate how plausible these assumptions are and to discuss other less or more plausible assumptions....but this tells me a story that after a delayed start (due to unexpected time to sign and then on-board channels) and also some initial software and installation issues, Ohm did grow rapidly for the first 3 quarters, and Q3 was reflective of the DM comment of "more installs than all Q;s previously). Likely to be technically true but unhelpful in moving to a less rampant expectation setting modus operandi. C'est la vie. But the question is what happened in Q4?? I know the rationale proferred and/or implied is a) customers beyond the initial group are seeking 'control' in addition to the 'monitor' functionality; b) holiday period; c) deferral by a couple of large verbally committed Caribbean customers; d) Digicel failure to accelerate; and e) management focus on possible LiFX acquisition.
Are these reasons plausible? Are management actions since then consistent with what we would expect as shareholders? Should the sales force or management heads roll? Will that help or further hinder our cause? Do 4 quarters make a completed 'game' for Ohm, and can we really call the game at this point? Do two data points from disgruntled employees unequivocally confirm that we have a management and culture problem, or is it more likely that we have normal issues and that missed expectations allow 2 disgruntled opinions to carry far more weight than a thinking person would otherwise attribute? Questions obviously posed with tongue firmly planted in cheek.
Q1CY19 will be key to seeing whether Ohm resumes its trend or not and if the reasons given for the preceding quarter were valid. At least the reasons due to holiday's and deferred verbal commitments. perhaps even the lack of 'control' on a partial basis as opportunities to bundle with LiFX gives a limited control for lighting related savings. Other than that, Thor should be back to A$415k per quarter (approx) for the retainer
and additionally, a small stream of royalties from the smart connected trailers should start to tally up (though probably not materially noticeable initially). And then there is the LiFX stream of revenues....and future LiFX related growth opportunities within the commercial as well as residential spaces.
Time will tell. GLTA and obviously everything above is IMO. DYOR.
