Originally posted by Whatsamadoovie
The Board of a small company has no chance to move the sp against the direction most advantageous to the big players; whatever announcements are will be sold into with such pressure as to render them worthless (unless it suits the faceless ones).
In my opinion this is a load of BS.
During rhe roadshows we saw a small and sustained rise, brought on by the great news pending and anticipation of brilliance. The momentum that was created with a release every fortnight helped that anticipation, and most of us on here knew there was manipulation from Mac and Pocock.. but even they saw the potential and seemed to stop selling for a while.
Then our saviour and CEO entered the scene and stopped everything good about what was happening. And we saw a sustained drop in sp, because those sellers saw no other option but to get out when they could, while the rest of us lived in hope that he would see the error of his ways.. and he did.
From no releases to ‘investor updates’ which were useless, for 2 reasons, they said nothing. AND those sellers saw they said nothing, and kept selling.
The rest is history.
Interesting tech proposal by HZR and being scientifically inclined, thought I'd join HC and get a bit of info and guidance - very new to this so forgive my mistakes.
Wanted to look at the economics and sensitivities, as I like referable info (sorry not much into the hype side of things, which probably explains why I'm not a good trader
). Looks like this has not been done (or just not published?) yet, although the info seems generally available and they are proposing a commercial (economical?) demo plant? In short, what is the realistic business case?
Would appreciate some input, opinion and corrections to assist with this.What I think the proposal is so far from digging through releases and HC - a bit of guess work and speculation included:
- Hydrogen @ $2-3/kg? vs. optimistic @ $5/kg? - consider market depth available vs actual penetration, quality/purity/application, prices drop when supply increases?
- Graphite @ $4-5/kg (unconfirmed market value for the actual product?) vs. optimistic @ $10/kg - consider this is a new product, market depth available vs penetration capacity, consider captured market?
- Natural gas (feed stock) price @ $10,000/TJ - depends on assumptions for supply.
- Energy consumption - heating, compression, cooling, losses - how much?
- Other utilities and services?
- Electricity price @ $0.30/kWh - depends on assumptions for supply.
- CAPEX @ $10 million for 100 t/yr marketable hydrogen - does this include all utilities, land, taxes, owners costs, what is the H2 purity and market, what is the graphite purity and market, storage and transport to client considered and included, etc? Seems a pretty round figure so assume this is very +/-. Have to assume they would release the low side of the estimate, been a while since even proven tech has come in on budget?
- Assume CAPEX has a cost of say 3% per year?
- OPEX - can make a guess for base running costs, consumables, sustaining capital, insurance, maintenance, overheads, salaries, etc.
The science stuff:
- Conversion/selectivity of methane to hydrogen @ 60%?
- Final hydrogen product purity @ 99% - depends on final application?
- Hydrogen recovery to marketable product @ 50% - 90% - wild guess? Would require purification, with losses?
- Graphite conversion/selectivity @ 3:1 with hydrogen? No by-products?
- Graphite recovery to marketable product @ 50% - 90% - wild guess? Would require purification with losses?
- Final graphite product purity @ 99% - depends on final application?
(20min delay)
