Interesting tech proposal by HZR and being scientifically inclined, thought I'd join HC and get a bit of info and guidance - very new to this so forgive my mistakes.
Wanted to look at the economics and sensitivities, as I like referable info (sorry not much into the hype side of things, which probably explains why I'm not a good trader ). Looks like this has not been done (or just not published?) yet, although the info seems generally available and they are proposing a commercial (economical?) demo plant? In short, what is the realistic business case?
Would appreciate some input, opinion and corrections to assist with this.What I think the proposal is so far from digging through releases and HC - a bit of guess work and speculation included:
Hydrogen @ $2-3/kg? vs. optimistic @ $5/kg? - consider market depth available vs actual penetration, quality/purity/application, prices drop when supply increases?
Graphite @ $4-5/kg (unconfirmed market value for the actual product?) vs. optimistic @ $10/kg - consider this is a new product, market depth available vs penetration capacity, consider captured market?
Natural gas (feed stock) price @ $10,000/TJ - depends on assumptions for supply.
Energy consumption - heating, compression, cooling, losses - how much?
Other utilities and services?
Electricity price @ $0.30/kWh - depends on assumptions for supply.
CAPEX @ $10 million for 100 t/yr marketable hydrogen - does this include all utilities, land, taxes, owners costs, what is the H2 purity and market, what is the graphite purity and market, storage and transport to client considered and included, etc? Seems a pretty round figure so assume this is very +/-. Have to assume they would release the low side of the estimate, been a while since even proven tech has come in on budget?
Assume CAPEX has a cost of say 3% per year?
OPEX - can make a guess for base running costs, consumables, sustaining capital, insurance, maintenance, overheads, salaries, etc.
The science stuff:
Conversion/selectivity of methane to hydrogen @ 60%?
Final hydrogen product purity @ 99% - depends on final application?
Hydrogen recovery to marketable product @ 50% - 90% - wild guess? Would require purification, with losses?
Graphite conversion/selectivity @ 3:1 with hydrogen? No by-products?
Graphite recovery to marketable product @ 50% - 90% - wild guess? Would require purification with losses?
Final graphite product purity @ 99% - depends on final application?
HZR Price at posting:
31.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
). Looks like this has not been done (or just not published?) yet, although the info seems generally available and they are proposing a commercial (economical?) demo plant? In short, what is the realistic business case?
(20min delay)
