Why would I buy? A not particularly rational reason - I have a...

Why would I buy? A not particularly rational reason - I have a family connection with Denniston and was probably always destined to invest at some stage.

If there is a buck to be made out of this I'll be as happy as the next punter to make it. At the same time I'm mindful that my ugliest losses have happened when I have been too fixated on the reward and lost sight of the risk.

It is not hard to see the upsides - low capex, moderate opex, high quality coal, cashflow turning positive, exchange rate beginning to fall, shorts drying up, etc, etc.
To the downside I am less concerned about the state of the global coal market and investment markets than I am about the sine qua non of consenting. Although progress has been made, it isn't across the line yet and F&B show no signs of quitting. I'm picking the mine will be approved but, in light of the mitigation vs offsets finding, the conditions that will be attached to that approval are anyone's guess at the moment.