AEZ 0.00% 0.1¢ apn european retail property group

death by covenants?!

  1. 1,548 Posts.
    I'm new to this stock, so apologies if I am off the mark, but very interested in any thoughts. Below is purely gut feel from an hour or two of reading through the last six months worth of announcements, reports and accounts.

    Major risk - breach of LVR covenants...very little headroom on these. ICR covenants look ok though. I know next to nothing about European property, however I would have thought that valuations would be likely to fall below cost on some properties (more than 10% down on 30 June conservative?).

    Good news appears to be that most debt is non-recourse, yet being forced into fire-sales or materially higher interest rates (as per working capital facility) is obviously undesirable as is pressure for more cash (ala Romania).

    Whilst AEZ at 6 cents looks like a punting stock rather than an investment, my main concern is what will happen if they breach covenants on a few properties at 31 Dec? Will this see the SP decline further. More importantly, will there be a domino impact on the company as a whole.

    The other risk is cash costs of hedging if the A$ falls materially against the Euro, as we have seen with other funds.

    Not sure whether this is worth a punt or not, thoughts apprecitated.
 
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