On 23 October the DAX decisively broke below the neckline of a major head-and-shoulders topping pattern. We may see a bounce back up to the neckline to alleviate near-term oversold conditions, but the initial target remains well below the key psychological 10,000 level. This would confirm the commencement of a new bear market with Germany, Europe's most powerful economy, leading the broader continent into a deep financial and economic recession.