re: dlux (euroz) mar report,text test
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Key Points • Scoping study confirms economic viability of Salman project. • Acquisition of adjacent ground potential to add high grade feed to project. • Expect resource base to approach 1.8-2.0moz over 6 mths. • Bankable feasibility study to be completed by end of CY’06 • Valuation and target price $0.99/sh. Comments A positive scoping study, aggressive drill program and new land acquisition adjacent to its main resource augurs well for ADU over the coming year. We believe Salman will become a ~ 100koz pa gold mine and with over 500 sqkm of tenements and numerous soil anomalies to test we believe ultimately the resource will grow to ~ 2moz and reserve to 0.8-0.9moz. A scoping study was completed on the Salman/Anwia deposits. The key assumptions were: Capex: US$57m (includes 15% contingency) Strip ratio: 3.6:1 T’put: 1.3mtpa Production: ~ 100koz pa @ US$286/oz Optimised Rsc: 680koz @ 2.65 g/t Au Mine Life: 6.5yr Net Free CF : A$125m (using a gold price of US$550/oz) (The Net Free cashflow is after capex, pretax and an exchange rate of $0.74). This estimate was in line with our estimate which form the basis of our $0.99/sh valuation, however we include a nominal value for the remaining rsc ($10/oz) and $5m for exploration potential. A potential timeline to development would be a feasibility study completed by end of CY’06 (cost $6-7m) followed by construction and first production in late CY’07/early CY’08. We believe there is upside to our valuation with mineralisation still open along strike and down dip and potentially higher grade mineralisation at recently acquired adjacent prospect. The recent acquisition of the Nkroful property for A$3.5m (cash $1m, scrip $2.5m) appears to be a very good deal and price. This property is located 3km S of Anwia and 10km SW of Salman. Previous drilling has intersected some high grade mineralisation including 6m @ 148 g/t from 50m, 14.1m @ 10.1 g/t from 1m and 35m @ 2.2 g/t from surface. Adamus Resources (ADU $0.80) Speculative Buy ADU believe there is potential for a modest high grade resource, say 100-200koz @ 8-10 g/t. This higher grade ore would obviously enhance the Salman project and could result in the overall grade increasing closer to 2.8-3.0 g/t (currently 2.6 g/t Au). This has not been factored into our valuation. ADU offers both gold price and exploration leverage. It plans to spend $3-4m on exploration in CY’06 whilst completing the feasibility study with the target of increasing the current 1.5moz resource closer to 2moz. It trades at a discount to our valuation and with numerous COMPANY ACTIVITIES Adamus Resources Ltd listed on the ASX in June 2001 on some grass root exploration tenements in WA. In August 2002 it acquired the Salman project located in Sth Ghana and commenced a confimatory drill program. In Jan’04 it acquired the neighbouring Anwia deposit and consolidated its land package around these two projects. After an extensive drill program ADU announced its initial resource from Salman and Anwia of 720koz. Further drilling lead to a resource upgrade of 1.2moz in Feb’05. The bulk of this resource is oxide and defined to a maximum depth of ~ 120m. The company aims to complete a prefeasibility/scoping study by the end of CY’05 and assuming a successful outcome would immediately commence a bankable feasibility, likely to take 9-12months. We envisage that based on a successful feasibility study first gold pour could be late CY’07/early CY’08. The management team is headed by Hamish Halliday, a geologist with over 10 yrs experience and the recent addition of Gary Brabham as Technical Director strengthens the board. AUSTRALIAN RESEARCH TOP 20 SHAREHOLDERS AS AT 02 MARCH 2006 Shareholders Shares (m) (%) 1 Westpac Custodian Nominees Ltd 18.40 20.74 2 Mr Robert Charles Gardner 10.84 12.22 3 Citicorp Nominees Pty Ltd 7.27 8.20 4 Macquarie Bank Ltd 7.00 7.89 5 Semafo (Barbados) Ltd 4.00 4.51 6 National Nominees Ltd 3.83 4.32 7 Hightime Investments Pty Ltd 3.15 3.55 8 Hightime Investments Pty Ltd 3.00 3.38 9 Macquarie Bank Ltd 1.75 1.97 10 Aurora Sky Investments Ltd 1.14 1.28 11 Dundee Precious Metals Inc 1.07 1.20 12 ANZ Nominees Ltd 1.06 1.19 13 Mr Mark Trevor Bojanjac 1.02 1.14 14 McTavish Industries Pty Ltd 1.00 1.13 15 Macquarie Bank Ltd 0.90 1.01 16 Baygold Investments Pty Ltd 0.70 0.79 17 Osiris Investment Partners 0.60 0.67 18 Mr Paul Delius Haege 0.55 0.61 19 Dr John Leonard Daniels 0.50 0.56 20 Long Short Gold Portfolio Ltd 0.47 0.53 TOTAL 68.25 76.89 MARKET STATISTICS Share Price $0.80A$/sh Directors Issued Capital J.Hopkins Chairman FP Ord 92.6m H.Halliday Managing Director Opts (var $0.25-$0.45) 2.5m G.Brabham Director Total Dil. FPOrd 95.1m M.Bojanjic Director Shareholders Market Capitalisation $74m Gardner 28.6% Enterprise Value $68m MBL 11.2% Debt $-m Dundee Securities 11.2% Cash $6m African Lion 4.5% SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 ADU VOLUME ('000) ADU SHARE PRICE ($) Mar-06Jan-06Nov-05Sep-05Jul-05May-05Mar-05 soil/geophysical targets we believe there is further upside. RESOURCES QUARTERLY MARCH 2006 Copyright & Distribution: The material in this communication is prepared for the exclusive use of clients of Euroz Securities Ltd Disclaimer & Disclosure: (ACN 000 364 465) only. Euroz Securities is a licensed securities dealer and participating organisation of the Australian Stock Exchange Limited. Euroz Securities and its associates declare that they deal in securities as part of their securities business and consequently may have a relevant interest in the securities recommended herein (if any). Euroz Securities declares that it may have acted as an underwriter, arranger, co-arranger or advisor in equity capital raisings, and will have (cont...)
Adamus Resources Analyst Andrew Clayton AUSTRALIAN RESEARCH ADAMUS RESOURCES (ADU) YEAR END 30 JUNE ASSET VALUATION Base Case Salman/Anwia Hedging Corporate Remaining Rsc @ $10/oz Exploration Unpaid Capital Cash Total @ 10% nom Total @ 0% nom A$m A$/sh 55 0.60 (0) (0.00) 16 0.18 7 0.08 5 0.06 0 0.00 6 0.07 89 0.99 152 1.67 Total @ 5% nom 116 1.28 Total @ 15% nom 66 0.73 Valuation @ spot (10% nom) Valuation @ 10 year average (10% nom) 87 0.96 (16) (0.18) FORECAST PRODUCTION 2006f 2007f 2008f 2009f Salman/Anwia 100% --83 105 TOTAL (koz) --83 105 Avg Cash cost Avg Total Cost Avg Spot Price Avg Price Rec’d 254 254 363 364 550 555 550 555 RATIO ANALYSIS 2006f 2007f 2008f 2009f CF (A$m) CF / Sh (Ac/sh) CF Ratio (x) (2) (2) (23.7) (3) 26 37 (3) 28 40 (29.0) 2.9 2.0 Earnings (A$m) EPS (Ac/sh) EPS Growth (%) Earnings Ratio (x) (1) (1) 0% (36.4) (2) 7 11 (2) 8 12 0% -536% 56% (44.7) 10.2 6.6 E’prise Val. (A$m) EV : EBITDA (x) EV : EBIT (x) 124 (41.2) (41.2) 124 104 70 (49.4) 3.4 1.7 (49.4) 5.8 2.8 Net Debt / ND+Eq (%) Interest Cover (x) EBIT Margin (%) ROE (%) ROA (%) 52% 42 - -1% -1% 52% 35% -7% 31 4 10-29% 31% -4% 15% 17% -2% 17% 23% Div. (Ac/sh) Div. payout ratio Div. Yield - 0% - --- 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Div. Franking ---- PROFIT & LOSS 2006f 2007f 2008f 2009f Gold Sales --62 81 Hedging Revenue Deferred Revenue - - -- -- (0) - Interest Revenue 0 0 0 1 Other Revenue ---- TOTAL REVENUE 0 0 63 82 Operating Costs Dep/Amort O/H + New Bus Dev W/O & Provisions EBITDA - - 3 1 - -29 -12 3 3 -- 34 37 16 3 - 44 EBITInterest Expense Net Profit Before Tax Tax Minorities (4) 0 (4) (1) - (3) 18 0 5 (3) 13 (1) 5 -1 25 4 21 8 1 NET PROFIT Net Abnormal Gain/(Loss) NET PROFIT After Abn’l (3) - (3) (2) 7 -- (2) 7 11 - 11 CASHFLOW 2006 2007f 2008f 2009f Net Profit + Working Capital Adj. + Dep/Amort + Provisions (3) - -- (2) 8 -- -12 -- 13 - 16 - + Tax Expense - Tax Paid (1) - (1) 5 -- 8 - Operating Cashflow -Capex + Development -Exploration -Assets Purchased (4) - 5 - (3) 26 76 1 2 2 -- 37 1 2 - +Asset Sales ---- Investing Cashflow +Equity Issues +Loan D’down/Receivable -Loan Repayment -Dividends (5) 6 - - - (78) (3) 25 - 65 - 1 14 -- (3) - - 14 - Financing Cashflow Period Sur (Def) Cash Balance 6 (3) 2 89 (14) 8 9 10 19 (14) 21 40 BALANCE SHEET 2006f 2007f 2008f 2009f Assets Cash 2 10 19 40 Current Receivables 0 0 0 0 Other Current Assets ---- Non-Current Assets 22 98 86 70 Total Assets 23 107 105 110 Liabilities Borrowings Current Accounts Payable Other Liabilities - 1 0 60 49 1 1 0 0 35 1 0 Total Liabilities 1 61 50 36 Net Assets 22 46 55 74 RESERVES AND RESOURCES Reserves Resources mt g/t Salman/AniwaEquity Share Gold (mos) Enterprise Value / oz (A$) moz 0.00 0 mt g/t 22.0 2.1 moz 1.5 1.50 46 RESOURCES QUARTERLY MARCH 2006 complete, reliable or up to date, nor do we accept any obligation to correct or update the opinions in it. (cont...) received a fee for its services, for any company mentioned within this report during the last three years. You should not act on any recommendation issued by Euroz Securities without fi rst consulting your investment advisor in order to ascertain whether the recommendation (if any) is appropriate, having regard to your investment objectives, fi nancial situation and particular needs. Euroz Securities believes that the information and advice contained herein is correct at the time of compilation, however we make no representation or warranty that it is accurate,
ADU Price at posting:
0.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Not Held