cuts eps forecast to 34c tp 36c range , page-12

No you have made the same mistake Lois did. Organic growth is an increase in sales/output from the existing business. If the business model is flawed then replicating it across another 2000 centres won't help you. It merely compounds the problem.

Child care centres are already full. The reason other business aren't lining up to compete with ABC is because there is no money in it.

Another factor that the market is pricing in is the change of government. The Labor party is not happy with the current private child care model and would much prefer them to be community non profit organisations. That way subsidies don't get sucked up in company profits.