statistically the floor is 73.50-76 at present however there is a slight gradient to that number meaning that in a few months it will be higher without further significant falls.
our models has 86-88 some time ago however if you map outlier moves in IO to the upside in the peak BS period pre-Lehman Bros and mirror them you arrive in the mid 70's.
I've seen research from a decent Deutsche Bank analyst and they are still quite bearish expecting a further leg lower even if Twiggy Forrest avoided the fire near term.
Chart below shows our levels.
If anyone has decent historical data for Iron Ore, weekly would be fantastic I'll be able to tweak the output levels with greater accuracy. Only have access to a monthly feed at present as waiting for a Platts subscription to be set up.
If anyone can post the August close price, Sept low and last prices I will update the levels accordingly.
