Cuba Block 9 Valuation

These are not common farmout terms so I've applied a different approach to getting a valuation. Would love to get a few other's opinions and valuations up here too.

I've used a fully diluted case of 2.5b shares (2b after recent placement + a 25% buffer for future CR). Looking only at the 3 matured prospects, Alameda @ P90 39mmboe with 32% COS, Zapato @ P90 38mmboe with 23% COS, Piedra @ P90 14mmboe with 23% COS. Average COS across the 3 prospects is 26% with a total P90 91mmboe.

91,000,000 x 0.26 = 23,660,000......let's play it on the safe side and call it 20mmboe keeping in line with the risked discount approach.

20,000,000 - 25% "cost oil" (???) = 15,000,000

15,000,000 x 0.125 = 1,875,000 (barrels net to MAY @ market price)

1,875,000 x $80 (assuming oil is going over $100 a barrel and applying a 20% discount) = USD $150,000,000......AUD $195,000,000 (again applying a discount allowing for AUD strengthening)

$195,000,000 ÷ 2,500,000,000 (fully diluted shares on issue) = 0.078 cps.

The valuation is only based on the current Block 9 farmout and doesn't take into account recently raised $3.5mill (which can be nullified by the loan/corporate costs) and the cash return from the CUPET guarantee (ongoing corporate costs), nor does it value any of Beehive, TS or Santa Cruz. I've tried to apply heavy discounts across all areas to factor in the risk associated and reflect a SP valuation based purely on the farmout agreement as it is at this moment in time. There is plenty of scope for significant upside to this valuation on a decent discovery or multiple discoveries, however I'm only interested in the current valuation for now.

0.078 cps on a binding agreement, 0.039 cps applying a 50% for the LOI (but realistically only 5 - 10% chance of it falling through), which to me makes the current SP extremely undervalued.

Happy for this to be torn apart and see differing thoughts/opinions/valuations.....i think we'll still come to the same conclusion though....currently MAY is heavily undervalued.