CTP use of NGP Capacity, page-40

I don't think it's "extremely undervalued" at current prices for the current reserves situation. I don't have a really good handle on CTP's costs but when I run cashflow estimates using a range of inputs I generally get a value for CTP somewhere in the 15-20c range. Factor in a risk discount around future gas prices (LNG import terminal, etc) and rehab liabilities down the track, and I think 15c is a decent price.

The value in CTP is in proving up additional gas reserves, particularly in-field at Mereenie and PV which are just pure cream. That's why I was extremely disappointed by the failure of WM26 - before it was drilled I'd have said 20c was a fair price and if it had been successful, 25c or more.

It's still a decent stock to hold IMO because the downside risk is now pretty limited as the current operations underpin the SP. But WM26 really disappointed me as that was the supposedly low risk 2C upgrade to 2P. We have one more shot at this in PV13, but after that we're going to higher risk ventures at Ooraminna and the ultimate lotto ticket at Dukas.