G'day again Ffffoorrrest,Enjoy watching yourself on t.v. on...

G'day again Ffffoorrrest,

Enjoy watching yourself on t.v. on Saturday night - had to choose between you and the Magnificent Seven, tough call.

Now to the spread sheat.

*As I said in the previos post the valuation will live and die by the sales forecast; my view is that your forecast is very conservative given that approval in Japan will ratchet up sales quite quickly. By year three sales total sales are more likely to be in the 7 - 10m unit range and would grow from there.
*I would be trying to estimate a split between US and non US sales and applying a 30% distributor margin to the non US sales
*I would use a 10% discount rate
*I would ratchet up the overhead costs more with sales growth as distributors will need to be serviced frequently - perhaps by resident personnel in Japan and Europe plus ther will be ongoing R&D for other tests and things we cannot think off right now
*PE in the early years is likely to be 50 - 100 cos of the growth factor and around 20 by year ten as there will still be some growth left

Apart from the above, pretty good - luv the colours too, I only do black and white.

If you want to be super sensitive you could do optimistic and pessimistic cases as well and assign probability values to all three and then multiply them out. But that's getting very tricky.